How To Predict The Future
(By Gil Gerretsen) Recognized as one of the top 10 toys of the 20th century, over 300 million Slinkys have been sold worldwide. I enjoyed having one as a child, but discovered an interesting business insight when in my thirties. By that time, I saw the Slinky as something more than a toy. For me, it came to represent a way of understanding the lessons of history.
If you’re not familiar with the Slinky, it’s worth a little online research. If you have kids, it’s probably worth buying them one. Simply explained, the Slinky is a helical spring toy that can perform a number of tricks, including “walking” down a flight of stairs. After a small nudge, it just keeps flipping end over end until it reaches the bottom.
The business and life lesson I learned from the Slinky has helped me through many decisions that have created difficulty for others. Here it is: history flips end over end and repeats itself on a fairly regular basis, but landing on a different “stair” (outcome) each time.
Economic cycles repeat themselves. Business patterns and preferences also have cycles. Generations of people follow similar patterns as they mature. However, the ”stairs” of each cycle will be different enough that most people will not see the patterns nor be able to use prior cycles to draw lessons from them.
One of the wisest business development strategies any leader can cultivate is to study the cycles and lessons of history. The things you are seeing now have happened before, but with a different twist. Ask yourself what you can learn from those prior cycles. What new opportunities might develop from the current cycle? Since the associated patterns repeat, what might come next? How long might that take?
The best part of the Slinky Theory Of History is that you never need to live in fear of the future. You won’t know exactly what the future will look like, but you’ll have better insight than most people around you. That simple advantage can pay huge dividends.
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