The Business Of Future Political Change
(By Gil Gerretsen) There is a political and social shift underway in America that both legacy media and political pundits seem to have missed. Signs continue to point toward an emerging landscape that will be developing over the next twenty years and it will have significant business implications.
Legacy media and political pundits have missed this change because they are only thinking in one political dimension; liberals vs. conservatives; left vs. right; Democrats vs. Republicans; blue vs. red. However, their mindset needs to shift to a compass model. Politics is becoming two dimensional rather than one-dimensional.
In the United States, the north/south axis represents the debate between FISCAL liberty to the north vs. fiscal restraint to the south while the east/west axis represents the debate between SOCIAL liberty to the west vs. social restraint to the east.
Social Liberty vs Restraint
Proponents of social liberty believe that every individual should have the sole freedom to determine how they might live their life. They believe that the government has no place in protecting people from themselves nor should the government seek to dictate morality. Social legislation should only establish boundaries for the proper functioning of a society (i.e. defense, safety, environment, and infringements). Where necessary, the government should also provide universal protections for all members of that society. They seek minimal governmental influence and interference on their personal and social choices.
Proponents of social restraint, on the other hand, believe that society can only function effectively when a code of ethics and morality is established by the majority and then imposed for the mutual good of all citizens. Those who fail to follow those standards should be allowed the freedom to suffer the resulting consequences, for only then will they learn critical life lessons.
Fiscal Liberty vs Restraint
Proponents of fiscal liberty believe that society works best when the government serves the citizens by re-balancing the economic wealth for its citizens and helping everyone flourish as much as possible. Their aim is to reduce the extremes at both ends of society and this is best accomplished through taxation and redistribution.
Proponents of fiscal restraint, on the other hand, believe that governments should have limited authority to tax and spend, and that any such initiatives should foster an environment where citizens can live safely and flourish to the best of their individual desire or ability. Whether individuals flourish, or choose not to flourish, it is a personal choice and they reap the consequences accordingly. Government should foster an equal playing field, but not prop people up if they do not exhibit appropriate personal initiative.
In recent history, the debate has been between "liberals" who espouse a "northwesterly" blend or platform of social and fiscal liberty versus "conservatives" who espouse a "southeasterly" platform of social and fiscal restraint.
The New Direction
However, in the emerging populist movement in America and in many places across the globe, people are moving in a different direction. On the political compass, they are moving in a "southwesterly" direction. These people prefer social liberty blended with fiscal restraint, a position that neither traditional liberals or conservatives provide.
Since people seem to like a spectrum of political colors, I will color this movement as purple. The "Purple Movement" will gradually reshape government, first at local and regional levels, then state levels and ultimately at the national level. As that happens, businesses will need to adapt too.
In America's traditionally blue states, the battle will shift to fiscal liberty vs. restraint. Liberals vs. Populists. Blue vs. Purple. At first, the Purple Movement will begin to form the official opposition and the reds will disappear from the debate, meaning that Republicans may very well cease to be relevant there. Then, at some point, the Purple Movement will shift from official opposition to become the ruling party.
In America's traditionally red states, the battle will shift to social liberty vs. restraint. Conservatives vs. Populists. Red vs. Purple. Here, the Purple Movement will also begin to form the official opposition while blues will disappear from the debate, meaning that Democrats may disappear from sight. Eventually, the Purple Movement will also become the ruling party.
What will happen as a result of this transition? On the west coast and in the northeast, the Democrats may fade to a regional party. In the southeast and middle America, the Republicans may also fade to become a regional party. Only the emerging Purple Movement will emerge as a national party. In time, either Democrats or Republicans may reshape their platforms to emerge as the official opposition, but much will depend on generational priorities. Will the battle lines be drawn on the fiscal or social debate?
How To Prepare Your Business
Does the Purple Movement exist as a political party yet? Not yet. However, the winds are changing. Remember that ice melts from the edges, so this potential shift may not be noticed for a while yet.
As business leaders, do we need to do anything yet? No, but keep an eye on the possibility of this scenario. Change emerges quietly at first, but there is a point where it gains momentum and things begin to change quickly. If you have considered the possible implications for your business, you will be able to capture new opportunities before your competitors.
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